Scenario Modeling & Risk Analysis

Building Resilience Through Scenario-Based Modeling

Our scenario modeling services provide clients with tools to test how their projects perform under a range of market conditions and capital structures. We help clients quantify downside risks, evaluate potential market shifts, and understand how sensitive their projects are to key variables.

Ideal for:

→ Developers and sponsors preparing for institutional partner review
→ Investors stress-testing potential acquisitions or developments
→ Lenders and capital partners evaluating deal sensitivity and downside risk

Cap Rate, Rent Growth, and Cost Volatility Modeling

We model a range of market-driven sensitivities, including cap rate expansion, rent growth trends, and construction cost volatility. By running these scenarios, clients can better understand how value and return profiles shift under different market conditions.

Debt Structure & Interest Rate Sensitivity

We model multiple capital structures and debt scenarios, including varying levels of leverage, interest rates, amortization schedules, and loan terms. This helps clients quantify how debt structure impacts project returns, debt service coverage, and risk exposure.

Downside Protection & Break-Even Analysis

Our models include downside case analysis and break-even metrics, helping clients identify risk thresholds and quantify margin of safety. This provides a more comprehensive view of potential project outcomes and helps inform a more disciplined risk management approach.